The London-based think tank the Ayaan Institute expects some surprise results in the 2024 elections due to the impact of the Muslim vote. Whilst Muslim organisations and the media have focussed on a few high-profile towns/cities with large Muslim populations, we believe that the surprise results may come from a greater number of constituencies with smaller winning majorities in 2019 yet a smaller but significant percentage of Muslim voters. These have been given limited attention by the media and Muslim groups.

Depending on the strength of local independent, Workers Party, or Green Party candidates the results could be remarkably close with some surprise victories. Many talented Muslim women standing in elections have been given limited coverage by the media. We highlight some of the potential surprise constituencies below.

Jack Khan against Yasmin Qureshi in Bolton South, where the 2019-win majority was only 10,929 and the Muslim vote is 24.8%. In Bolton Northeast Hanif Ali of the Greens only needs to overturn a majority of 378 with 14% Muslim voters, which could cause an upset. Shenaz Saddique of the Workers Party in Oldham East and Saddleworth must overturn a majority of 1499 with a 17% Muslim voter base. Zafar Iqbal in Oldham West Chadderton and Royton must overturn a majority of 11,127 with a 28% Muslim vote. Leanne Mohammed in Ilford North could overturn a majority of 5218 with a Muslim voter base of 27%. In Luton South and North, Atiq Malik and Tauqeer Shah both have 27% and 26% Muslim voter bases and could win. Azhar Chohan in Slough should be able to pull off a surprise win against Tam Dhesi. In Dewsbury and Batley, Iqbal Mohammed of the Workers Party should overturn a majority of 1561 with a Muslim voter base of 31825 (39%). Sameh Habeeb has a chance of overturning a majority of 12269 with a 17% Muslim vote base. Despite a much smaller majority, Aroma Hassan, a strong Workers Party candidate, may well be the surprise win of the election against Angela Rayner needing to overturn a 4,263 majority with a Muslim voter base of 9851(10.4%).

We expect Faiza Shaheen should win comfortably in Chingford and Claudia Webbe in Leicester. Ayoub Khan could unseat Khalid Mahmood in Birmingham Perry Barr. Chris Williamson should win comfortably in Derby. Other surprise results may be in Hyndburn, Peterborough, Burnley, Walsall Bloxwich, Huddersfield, Pendle, and Clitheroe, Bury North, Sheffield South East, Coventry East and Wycombe
We expect the Muslim vote to have an impact in some other areas too: Feltham and Heston, Brent West, Brentford and Isleworth, Enfield North, Harrow West, Harrow East, Tottenham, Birmingham Edgbaston, London and Westminster, Watford, Queens Park, and Maida Vale.

Much will depend on the quality of independent and alternative party candidates and the work they put in. It will also depend on the national swing towards Labour and the number of votes taken from Labour by Reform. Split votes between several candidates could also have an impact. However, we are predicting some remarkably close ballots and a few surprise results.

For Further Information Contact: – Jahangir Mohammed 07961 427 950 or email jahangir.mohammed@ayaaninstitute.com