Jahangir Mohamed argues that Pakistan’s election is a selection process organised by the military for the next government and Prime Minister. The staged and rigged election masks an underlying struggle between the power of the people and Imran Khan on one side and the military and the power of the gun on the other side.

Pakistan Election or Selection?

February 8th, 2024 will be remembered as a pivotal moment in Pakistan’s political history. Pakistan’s military are staging their most daring and dirtiest election in living memory in brazen face of the global media and international community.   They have calculated that whatever they do the United States, UK and EU will support them and the outcome. So far, they have been proven right.

The election is more of a military selection process where everything has been done to stop the most popular party and leader in Pakistan from winning.  The military’s favourite is Nawaz Sharif (or a member of his family) to be the next leader of Pakistan.  Sharif is not exactly a friend of the military having been ousted from power three times by them in 1993, 1999 and 2017, being banished into exile and returning each time.  Should he win, this will be his fourth term. He has become like a yoyo for the military, in and out of power.  His PML-N party will likely win the most populous Punjab region, whilst Bilawal Bhutto Zardari and his People’s Party will win the Sindh region.  Bilawal’s grandfather the populist Prime Minister (PM) Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto was imprisoned and hanged by the military.  His mother the former PM Benazir Bhutto, was assassinated, and the family pointed the finger at the military.

You would think that both parties would unite with Imran Khan’s PTI to keep the military out of power, however their lust for family power and vendetta against Imran Khan seems greater than what is in the best interests of the county.   The military has ruled Pakistan directly for 32 years of the country’s history and from behind the scenes for the remaining 44 years of its history.  No serving PM has served a full five-year term.  The military and the ISI are the deep state that run Pakistan with the support of the United States.

However, this election is a political battle between the military and the most popular leader Pakistan has produced, Imran Khan and the PTI. Although ousted from power like all previous PM’s, Khan has simply become more popular, and the military know this.  The military have tried everything to stop him contesting the election and crippled the PTI.  Like Nawaz Sharif in the past he has been offered the standard military deal, stay out of politics for three years and go into exile, one day we may bring you back.  Khan however refuses to play along with the military and is serious about real change in Pakistan. The price for his principled stand is that he and his wife languish in prison for a lengthy time.

“I didn’t accept the deal that Nawaz Sharif accepted, and now he’s receiving protocol and is set to become the Prime Minister. I simply told them that I would not deviate from the democratic process…I would choose death over making a deal with anyone.”

Since Khan was ousted from office every trick in the book has been tried to keep him and the PTI from contesting a fair election. It would have been a landslide victory for them without such dirty tactics. The arbitrary arrests and detentions of its leaders and members (even their families) has been on a scale not seen in Pakistan before. Their right to organise and protest has been banned or curtailed.  Its social media has been curbed, and Pakistan’s media have been told not to cover Imran Khan and the PTI for the last year. The Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) has been a party to the plots and restrictions. Many PTI candidates’ applications to stand have been prevented. The PTI has even been banned from using its party logo with the cricket bat to confuse voters. Pre-election and exit polls have been prevented so no claims of PTI popularity can be used to challenge any rigging. As I write on election day, the internet and mobile phone access has been restricted in certain areas of Pakistan.

The Muslim Armies Against Their Own People.

Imran Khan and the PTI have taken a huge gamble in continuing to participate in a rigged election hoping that their popularity will still give them enough seats to prevent the military and the PML-N a free hand in Parliament.  They could have simply boycotted it and not give it any semblance of legitimacy. What we therefore have are two power bases using an election to determine legitimacy and decide on the future direction of the country.  On the one hand is the army determined to hang on to power by any means necessary, not playing to any rules of law. Their source of power is violence and detention to threaten anyone who disobeys their will.  On the other hand, there is Imran Khan and his mass popular support which has become a power base for the future of the country. Khan wants to play by the book and the rule of law.

This scenario has been repeated on numerous occasions in the Muslim world, the outcome is nearly always the same.  On the one hand you have a military that does not have any source of legitimacy from Islam, the people or a government, and no respect for the rule of law or democracy.  They have no respect for the system and the rules by which they expect others to play by. They only have the power and authority of the gun.  Then we have those who are committed to democracy and rule of law, working with the illegitimate military rulers (sometimes with their civilian fronts) to gain legitimacy.

We saw the results of this in the 1992 elections in Algeria when the FIS were prevented by a military from coming to power. We saw it many times in the past in Turkey. We saw it in Sudan where Hassan Turabi and General Omar Bashir concocted a democratic/military government. We have seen it in Egypt and Tunisia after the Arab Spring.  Imran Khan has put his faith in the Allah and the people of Pakistan.  Whether the people respond, and the military allow him to win remains to be seen.  The experience and history of other Muslim countries is, otherwise, the military wins by hook or crook.

However, political change happens in stages over time. It also happens when most people come to a consensus on what the problem is and the solution.  It is now clear to all inside and outside Pakistan, that its political development and hence economic progress is being hindered by military rule of the country. Most now also understand that the solution is to keep the military out of civilian politics and government.  The result of the selection/election in Pakistan will ultimately lead to change for future generations if not this one, Insha’Allah.