Dangerous Times for Pakistan

As Pakistan celebrates another Independence Day anniversary, it faces perhaps one of the most dangerous periods in its history. The Pakistani state has always been caught between superpower rivalry. Pakistan and India were twin states born out of the womb of a dying British superpower. At birth the Pakistani state ended up in the sphere of United States influence, the successor global power to Britain, whilst India ended up in the Soviet Union camp. At key moments of its history, Pakistan has traditionally been supportive of the United States and been supported by it.

So, when the Soviet Union invaded and occupied Afghanistan in 1979, Pakistan was faced with two pro-Soviet states on either side of its borders. The South Asian region was in danger of becoming part of the Soviet sphere of influence. The Pakistani military and the United States were never going to let that happen. Whilst Pakistan’s General Zia had already decided to take on the “Godless superpower,” the US found an opportunity to give the feared Red Army a beating (the two powers had never fought each other directly).

The Rise of Global Jihad.

Whilst the Afghan people were always going to resort to Jihad resistance against Soviet occupation, within their Islamic history and traditions, another Jihad movement emerged curtesy of the United States, Saudi Arabia, and several gulf states. British colonial rule had suppressed the theology of Jihad in India, using several movements, some pietistic and others deviant. The United States, however, was now facilitating the recruitment and training of Jihadis from around the Muslim world into Afghanistan, via Pakistan. In doing so it had also helped resurrect a theology of Jihad as a means of recruiting fighters, primarily from the Arab world. This theological revival of Jihad, the process of recruitment, and the United States role in it, is detailed in a book first published in 1999 (Unholy Wars: Afghanistan, America, and International Terrorism by John K. Cooley). The rest of the Afghan Soviet war is well known history.

By the time the feared Red Army returned home from Afghanistan, humiliated, and defeated, the Soviet Union and its Communism had ceased to exist. The US became the sole global superpower with devasting consequences for the Muslim world. The US walked away from the region, leaving Pakistan and the Afghan people to sort out the civil war that ensued after Soviet withdrawal. The Taliban eventually emerged into power (1996), backed by Pakistan, bringing to end the bitter civil war in Afghanistan and restoring law and order. The external Jihadi groups that had remained were left behind under no supervision or control, many not able to return to their home countries, including Osama Bin Laden. These groups, then turned their attention to fighting in other countries around the globe, and eventually a tit for tat revenge game between the USA and some in the Arab Jihadi groups. This culminated with the attacks on the US on 911.

The US had already identified the rise of political Islam in the Muslim world as a new emerging challenge to its global supremacy, along with the emergence of the economic power of China (known as the Green Peril and Yellow Peril). The US took advantage of the events of 911 to try to put an end to the rise of the political Islam in the Muslim world, which extended beyond Usama Bin Laden and his few hundred followers. Therefore, the war with China was put on hold whilst it took on the threat of political Islam. Over the last 20 years the US and West now feel they have largely won that war after the restoration of the old order threatened by the Arab Spring (except for Iran, its allies, and the Taliban in Afghanistan).

Pakistan shifts towards China

The US is now leaving the Arab world, Afghanistan, and Pakistan to deal with the aftermath of the mess it has created, yet again. Instead, it has now turned its own attention to wage another kind of war against the “Yellow Peril” it had identified, China, whose economic power has raced ahead in the last 20 years and looks like surpassing that of the US.

Whilst Pakistan has traditionally aligned with the US and the West when needed, neither have trusted each other entirely. Behind the scenes Pakistan’s loyal ally and supporter has always been China. This relationship has been solid, with China helping Pakistan in many of its most critical moments with India on Kashmir, the development of its nuclear bomb, developing Pakistan’s internal military production, dealing with US military threats, help in fighting internal terrorism, and more recently help with its crippling debt. China has been actively supporting Pakistan on counter terrorism since 2004, helping it deal with domestic terrorism and separatism. Attacks on Chinese workers and facilities inside Pakistan have aimed to disrupt this relationship between the two and damage joint economic development.

Meanwhile China sees Pakistan as a trusted and loyal ally despite a previous issue between them on international Uyghur militancy. Pakistan is the only country China trusts to host its navy, shipping and share military developments with.

The relationship between the Pakistan military and the US appears to have suffered a serious fracture when the US decided to assassinate Osama Bin Laden on its soil, without informing Pakistan and without permission to use its airspace. Even before the election of Imran Khan, Pakistan’s military had decided that Pakistan’s interests were best served by moving away from the US camp and ending support for the US “War on Terror”. President Obama opened the Taliban office in Qatar not Pakistan, to commence negotiations for an end to occupation. Relationships were further strained with the US and West’s shift towards India as a counterbalance to Chinese economic power.

Added to this is China’s grand plan for global trade dominance centred on the new Silk Road project BRI (one belt one road initiative) of which Pakistan is a key partner and ally. Gwadar port and belt road in Pakistan known as the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is being built by China. The revival of the 2000-year ancient trade route will eventually connect China, Africa and Asia to Europe through a series of road and maritime interconnected networks. If successful, there is no doubt China will become the mightiest economic power the world has ever seen, and it will develop quite a few Muslim countries along the way. The Xinjiang region is a key part of the Silk Road project. The West has also identified this region and its Muslim Uyghur people as the best way to disrupt the Silk Road economic project, hence their support for East Turkistan independence, and pro-independence Uyghur groups based in Turkey and the West.

Pakistan has now made it clear that its great hope for future economic development of its country rests with China and has placed itself clearly in the Chinese led bloc. The last twenty years of co-operation with the US has left it on the brink of political and economic bankruptcy. It has refused to allow the US continued use of its military bases after they withdraw from Afghanistan. Hence US reliance on its bases in Qatar, Kuwait, and Turkey. In the propaganda war between the US and China over the Uyghurs and Xinjiang, Pakistan has made it clear it is on the side of China and does not believe the US version of what is happening.

To make things worse for the US, the Taliban are returning to power in Afghanistan as the main power, instead of power sharing as envisaged by the US, moving it away from the Indian /Western camp and towards the Chinese/Pakistan camp. An incoming US President’s phone call to Pakistan has always been a top priority, but unusually eight months on President Biden has so far not called Prime Minister Imran Khan.

Potential Threats to Pakistan’s Security

Pakistan now finds itself caught in the middle of a new superpower rivalry led by the US /West against China, on whose side it has found itself. On the other side, India is now clearly in the US and Western camp. To seal this new arrangement the US has created the Quad security alliance against China consisting of the US, India, Australia and China’s historical rival and enemy, Japan. Israel is already supporting India militarily. Between them they have pledged to curb China and the economic potential of the new Silk Road trade route. There will be intense pressure, possibly destabilisation of Pakistan to force them to side with the US, and for the Taliban to do the same. There may also be more terrorist attacks on Chinese workers and economic projects inside Pakistan.

Pakistan has a bigger Pushtun population in its borders than Afghanistan (an estimated 25 million as opposed to 11 million in Afghanistan). The possibility of another bitter civil war and turmoil in Afghanistan when the Taliban come to power is real. This poses real threats for stability in Pakistan. Refugees will flow into Pakistan once more and anti-Pakistan Afghans pose a terrorism and security threat. Whilst Pakistan has built a security fence along its border with Afghanistan it is too long to police effectively.

During the last 20 years India has supported a Pashtun ethno-nationalist movement inside Pakistan, partly given life by Pakistan’s war in the tribal areas. Nationalist groups have also carried out terrorist attacks inside Pakistan and tried to destabilise relationships with other countries such as China and Iran by attacking their people, facilities, and projects. There is a real possibility of a secessionist movement instigated by India/the West gaining momentum, with more terrorist attacks. There is also an anti-Pakistan MQM led separatist movement based in Karachi which has been politically active for decades and terrorist attacks have taken place.

The United States has always had inroads into Jihadi movements since the Soviet occupation. There appears to be renewed interest in a new Jihad against China in defence of Uyghur Muslims, in some quarters. Both Pakistan and the Taliban have made it clear they will not tolerate global Jihadis from destabilising their countries or its neighbour China. The US will no doubt use its Muslim allied states to push its agenda on Pakistan and Xinjiang.

Part of that agenda is bringing back Islamabad to align with the US by supporting former leaders, their families, and political parties in preparation for the next election in Pakistan. The UK refuses to send back former Prime Minister Nawaz Shariff to Pakistan despite his conviction on corruption charges in Pakistan. Whilst the US is close to the Bhutto’s. The campaign to remove Khan from power has been activated from the UK. The Shariff’s also have close ties to Saudi Arabia, where Nawaz Sharif was previously exiled. The UK strategy is like that it employed previously with Benazir Bhutto, who was returned to Pakistan from the UK to contest elections.

Economically Pakistan is still indebted to the IMF and close US allies Saudi Arabia and the UAE. This puts its economic progress at risk. Political differences between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan led to pressures to repay loans early, and loyal ally China came to the rescue again. No doubt there will be pressure from these US allies to bring Pakistan back into the US orbit.

The rise of an India as a Hindutva supremacist state with a venomously anti-Pakistan/Muslim hate agenda (with a global following), having also annexed Kashmir, also puts Pakistan in grave risk of a war, which would pit China on the Pakistan side and India with the US and West.

These are just a few key challenges that Pakistan faces at a critical juncture in its history. Whilst Pakistani’s will celebrate Independence Day, true political and economic independence is going to be a much longer and arduous journey.

[1] https://www.dw.com/en/chinas-new-silk-road-faces-resistance-from-india-partners/a-44056399
[2] https://foreignpolicy.com/2014/07/14/riedel-the-war-against-the-soviets-in-afghanistan-was-run-by-zia-not-by-us/