In June 2017, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Egypt, the Maldives, Mauritania, Senegal, Djibouti, the Comoros, Jordan, the Tobruk -based Libyan government, and the Hadi -led Yemeni government broke diplomatic relations with Qatar. Air flights, sea and land routes from Qatar were closed.

Qatar has staunchly resisted caving into Saudi and Emirati demands, which included clamping down on support for Islamic movements and closing Al Jazeera TV channel.  It has also survived the sanctions which undoubtedly have affected its economy.

However, the announcement that Saudi Arabia and Qatar are to resume travel between the two countries was entirely expected.   Other Gulf states are likely to follow.  It has little to do with Muslim unity, and everything to do with the FIFA football World Cup to be held in Qatar in November 2022.

Qatar is caught between a rock and a hard place.  It wants to maintain its commitment and support to Islamic causes but having won the right to host the world cup in 2022, it needs to restore ties to ensure the world cup can be hosted effectively. Saudi Arabia, UAE and Bahrain know this.

Qatar is a tiny country with an estimated population of just under 2.9 million of which only around 350,000 are indigenous Qatari.  Like many of the Gulf states in the region it is a country whose development and success has been built by immigrants who also run the country.

Qatar has already spent $200 billion on infrastructure for the world cup, such as road, metro, stadiums, hotels, and the Lusail Island.  It is expected that 1.3 million football fans will descend on Qatar over a two-month period for the world cup.  This is a huge influx of people for a tiny population and will bring added pressures on hotels, infrastructure, service sectors, and the conservative religion and culture of the country. The initial plan was that many fans would stay in hotels in Dubai  an hour flight from Doha, where the hotel and service infrastructure already exists.  However, the boycott has put added pressure on Qatar, who have responded by building more hotels, but there is the question of their sustainability once the fans leave.

Donald Trump the property magnate has likely seen an opening for business deals in the hotel sector in the region, before or after the world cup and is involved in the negotiations.

Qatar has already cut back on some of its more ambitious Word Cup plans, and there are real questions over how they will successfully manage such a prestigious global event.  It needs to reach a deal with its neighbours to deal with the many challenges it will face.  This includes not just accommodation of large numbers fans; but also, the presence of women, wives, girlfriends, and the “sex economy”, which comes with football, as well as provision of alcohol.  These are all matters which FIFA no doubt has raised and probably contracted with Qatar.

An added issue will be how to deal with a minority of racist fans who will have to co-exist with mainly South Asian or black people managing security and the service sector. Dubai has already prepared the ground by relaxing laws relating to alcohol and pre-marital sexual relationships and stopping visas from certain mainly Muslim countries. Women involved in the sex trade started arriving in some countries in the region in late 2019 in preparation for the World Cup. Expect a deal with the Emirates soon.

The real issue is what concessions will Qatar make to Islamic causes and its relationships with Iran and Turkey.  Although you never can tell in this region, Qatar is not likely to change its current position. It feels more like a temporary cessation of hostilities which Qatar will have to pay for in cash, and everyone benefits from than anything more permanent.